Hello! Hello! Welcome to my first ever full picks column here at For The Win . It’s a nice place. It’s very accessible and there are many good people.
My name is Christian D’Andrea. I have been here about a week. You might remember my from SB Nation .. Or maybe you saw me in some DraftKings videos, likely talking about boy bands or cannibalism or some other non-football topic as a Madden ’21 game droned on in the background. Or perhaps you’re one of the tens of tens of people to subscribe to the NFL and sometimes beer-centric newsletter I help publish.
I have been in pick-making for some time now. Some lesser god has blessed me with a solid record. Per NFL Pickwatch, I was the top regular season prognosticator in both 2019 and 2020. These were not straight-up picks, and I don’t live in a state that legalizes sports betting. This means I can turn this talent into about zero dollars. My hope is that I can help you win some money in your honor.
(Note : These are moneyline picks. You can see the spread for these games on our USA Today scoreboard and odds page.
Looking for some picks? Here you go! .All moneyline odds via Tipico )
- Panthers (-410) at Texans
- Washington at Bills (-350)
- Bears at Browns (-360)
- Ravens (-400) at Lions
- Colts at Titans (-240)
- Chargers at Chiefs (-290)
- Saints at Patriots (-155)
- Falcons at Giants (-155)
- Bengals at Steelers (-170)
- Cardinals (-350) at Jaguars
- Jets at Broncos (-600)
- Dolphins at Raiders (-200)
- Buccaneers at Rams (+102)
- Seahawks (-130) at Vikings
- Packers (+140) at 49ers
- Eagles at Cowboys (-190)
Looking for some insight? You can find that information here.
Broncos over Jets. I know, I know, I’m not getting any degree of difficulty points by choosing a -600 favorite to beat the Jets, but the category is “pick I like,” not “pick I’m especially proud of.” My charter membership on Team Teddy Bridgewater may cloud my judgment as to how good he’s actually been, but the fact remains he’s throwing longer passes than ever and generally killing it. He’ll face a New York defense that allowed his old team, the Panthers, to throw for 279 yards and a touchdown without breaking much of a sweat two weeks ago. It’ll be the exact opposite for Zach Wilson. He signed up for a campy, haunted house, but was dropped into one that requires you to sign a waiver, after landing with the Jets. He was forced into a world where he had four interceptions and four completions at one point. This still qualifies as an improvement on his first two drives (two pass, two picks). Now he gets the Broncos, who haven’t gotten a ton from their pass rush — they rank in the league’s bottom 10 in sacks and QB pressures — but have still held opposing quarterbacks to a 65.5 passer rating thanks to a smothering secondary.
Packers over 49ers. Another boring week of football with little chance of any upsets. Los Angeles and Green Bay are the only two teams that I have selected with the + designation in the odds sheet . I’m probably too focused on the Packers’ second-half dominance of a poor Lions team. Green Bay finally got its house in order after spending the first six quarters of its season either getting boat-raced by the Saints — who’d go on to record 128 yards of total offense the following week — or waging a losing battle against Detroit, which is like picking a fight with the saddest mom at the wine bar and getting your teeth knocked in.
San Francisco has all the tools to exploit the Packers’ glaring weaknesses. Nick Bosa’s pass rush can exploit David Bahktiari’s absence and the two rookies who are starting in the o-line positions. A steady supply of tight ends and wideouts can overwhelm a secondary that is top heavy. Trent Williams is the leader of an offensive line that can divert a trickling pass rush and has only one sack to its credit.
“hey, how did the Packers get their first sack of the season? “
uh, well pic.twitter.com/yQ2l1siKvV
— Christian D’Andrea needs help to buy Ale Asylum (@TrainIsland) September 21, 2021
As much as Jimmy Garoppolo’s presence feels like a point in Green Bay’s favor, the Packers just struggled with another iffy quarterback with limited downfield throwing capability when it allowed Jared Goff to piece them up for much of last week’s game. This seems pretty academic when you consider San Francisco’s home field advantage.
Well, no. When Aaron Rodgers is angry and playing against the team he grew to love, nothing is academic. The same team that chose Alex Smith over him way back in the 2005 NFL Draft. No dude in the world holds a grudge quite like A-a-ron, who has an 18:2 TD:INT ratio in eight games against his hometown(ish) club. He was last seen throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns against them in 2020.
Yes, that was over an injury-riddled 49ers team, It still counts!
I believe Green Bay falls behind in the first half and then relies upon the playmaking of Rodgers (Davante Adams) and Aaron Jones to defeat a San Francisco team that has been struggling against teams it could reasonably expect to win. If you disagree with my Week 3 picks, this is the place to start.
Rams over Buccaneers. Do I count out Touchdown Tom like a fool? History shows that I am. Although Brady has been a great player for nearly two decades, there are still a few clunkers every year. Sometimes it happens against Nick Foles. Other times it happens in the postseason, though not often. Sometimes it’s both!
This week, he has to deal with a Rams defense that isn’t as deep as in years past but still has two headliners in Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey. But, the Rams no longer have John Johnson or Troy Hill in their secondary, and Tampa has the power to shift to whoever isn’t being harassed by Ramsey. Brady’s target list is ridiculously stacked. He can switch between Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and OJ Howard without losing much playmaking ability.
The Buccaneers have also been relentless against the run, in part because defensive tackle/independently-owned Arby’s franchise Vita Vea is an immoveable object in the middle of the line. Tampa’s only given up 3.0 yards per carry this fall (third-best in the NFL) and now faces a Rams’ rushing offense that has torched its preseason depth chart and will now likely start former Brady teammate Sony Michel as RB1 instead.
However If there’s any quarterback you’d trust to perform without a running game, it’s former Detroit Lion Matthew Stafford. Stafford’s first home game in LA saw him dust the Bears for 321 yards, three touchdowns, and an absurd 12.4 yards per attempt. He’ll now have a $5 billion complex to support him in the largest game at SoFi Stadium. Even though the numbers aren’t encouraging, that’s enough to convince me to choose LA.
Hey, you stuck it out this long, might as well reward yourself with a one that is cold (which is, if you are not a mid-30s dork who spent their formative years on Homestarrunner.com, a very stupid way to say “beer.”)
Much like an Earth, Wind, and Fire horn player, the waning days of September are my favorite time of the year. As the weather cools down, football takes over weekends that were once reserved for sunburns and sweaty lawn mowing. The malty goodness found in Oktoberfest beers fills grocery shelves all across the country.
Oktoberfests provide a welcome relief from the tastebud-scalding doubleIPAs. They also offer a refreshing alternative to the lighter beers like kolsches, hefeweizens, and light beers that dominate summer. They are, owing to German roots and often brewed according to Munich’s purity laws, the beer that most tastes like beer; smooth, balanced, and easy to drink in steins so massive your Fitbit counts each sip as a workout.
I’m surrounded by great brews as a (transplanted Wisconsinite). For the most part, very good brews. In honor of one of the finest seasons in the universe and the greatest Swiss city in America, this week’s malted beverage is a classic from a brewery you’ve probably heard of, but are unable to purchase unless you’re inside Badger State limits: New Glarus Brewing’s Staghorn Oktoberfest Beer.
Staghorn is a toasty, flavorful beer that portends the brisk weather to come. It tastes great, and it smells amazing. The crispness fades to a sweet, bready finish. This beer is perfect for celebrations. It can also be used to erase any memories of Vanderbilt football games you might have been foolishly exposed.
While Spotted Cow gets the most attention, Staghorn is one NG offering that’s even more delicious than the flagship farmhouse ale. This is a classic, simple recipe that’s done well. It’s a classic recipe that you should try if it is available. If you cannot find it, you are welcome to Wisconsin. You could have a Bloody Mary with your chaser.
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